The Paradox of Survival

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(KD / KL) – In contemporary political discourse, the survival of a political structure despite heavy international pressure is often interpreted as a sign of “stability and authority”. Regarding Iran, some analysts, and often the Iranian regime lobbies, rely on this premise to characterize the regime’s survival as evidence of its power, thereby, intentionally or otherwise, advocating for the continuation of appeasement and compromise with the religious dictatorship.

However, a clinical dissection of the Iranian regime’s strategic behavior in recent months, particularly in the security and judicial spheres, tells a different story: the regime is not operating from a position of strength, but is rather in a state of “emergency occupation”.

Admission of the Main Front: Fear of “Social Resilience”. The first sign of the regime’s desperation can be found in the shift of its security discourse. While the system’s propaganda machines speak of a battle against global powers, senior security officials have defined the main front of the war as the “streets of Iran”.

Ali Khezrian, a member of the regime’s Parliamentary National Security Commission, explicitly confessed to this fear: “We have reached a stage of the war where the issue of social resilience… is one of those vital points that can determine the outcome of this war for either side. On this matter, they want to once again empty the streets for the benefit of ‘terrorist elements’ and ‘agents of chaos’ [terms used by the regime to describe the Iranian people's uprising, particularly the protests by rebellious youth in January] who utilized them previously. Our dear people must know that their presence in the squares and streets is of such great importance”.

This analysis reveals that the regime views the presence of people (read: Basij, IRGC, and Law Enforcement forces) in the streets not as a civil matter, but as the “decisive variable of the war”. The use of the keyword “foreign enemy” is merely a cover to prevent the protest-driven presence of the people in the streets and to link any uprising to transborder conspiracies, a tactic aimed at justifying naked domestic repression.

Military Deployment Against Citizens: 129,000 repressive forces. In this regard, perhaps the most telling fact, explaining why the regime’s primary war and existential threat has always been against the Iranian people and the organized resistance, is the unprecedented military deployment, and checkpoints seen across cities despite the external war. According to public documents published in the regime’s press, the clerical government has established approximately 1,500 special checkpoints throughout the country. In this operation, more than 129,000 members of the Law Enforcement and Basij forces have been organized specifically to prevent the spark of popular uprisings.

A sovereign power that claims regional strength and domestic stability does not need to turn every inch of its soil into a military garrison. The deployment of this massive volume of armed forces in squares and city entrances, especially under conditions of external war and bombardment, highlights the reality that the system views Iranian society not as its “social base”, but as a “powder keg” and a potential enemy that could explode at any moment. This formation is not the status of an established government, but the status of an “occupying force” in its final stages of survival.

Political Executions: A message of fear, not authority. The new and unprecedented wave of political executions in Iran is another piece of the regime’s desperation puzzle. The execution of more than 20 political prisoners in the past month, at least eight of whom were members of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), the main opposition, with the remainder being rebellious youth from recent uprisings, sends a clear message to society.

By targeting those who demonstrated the path of confronting repressive forces to the younger generation during past uprisings, the regime seeks to sever the link between “organized resistance” and “social rage”. These executions are not a sign of resolve, but a frantic attempt to block the revolutionary path that has challenged the regime’s legitimacy to the brink of collapse. The daily activities of the MEK Resistance Units in targeting regime’s repressive centers, like Basij, and IRGC centers is the clear indicator for the failure of the regime in its intimidating measures.

The necessity of shifting international strategy. Forty-five years of appeasement policy, built on the illusion that the Iranian regime is a stable and traditional power, has only served to fuel its warmongering machinery and regional terrorism. It is now proven that by creating external crises, the regime seeks only to mask the tremors of its domestic overthrow.

The truth manifesting today through the checkpoints and gallows is this: the regime’s survival is not a sign of its strength, but a sign of the “heavy price” it pays, extracted from the pockets of the Iranian people and the world, to maintain its physical existence. The solution to the current deadlock, as states time and again by Mrs. Maryam Rajavi, the president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), is neither foreign bombardment nor relying on the failed policy of appeasement; it is the support of the Iranian people’s will and their organized resistance for regime change in Iran. A government that requires 129,000 guards in every alley and street to remain in power has already fallen in the hearts of the streets.

On June 20, the anniversary of the beginning of the Iranian revolution against the ruling mullahs and the Day of Martyrs and Political Prisoners, over 100,000 NCRI supporters will rally in Paris. They are demanding EU action to end executions in Iran and lending their support to the provisional democratic republic, the formation of which was announced on February 28, 2026, based on the NCRI’s 10-Point Plan for a six-month transitional period.